2027: Why Jonathan can’t run

THE February 20, 2027 presidential election is exactly 910 days away, going by the timetable of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, but the political firmament is astir as if the poll will be held next year.

This is in spite of the fact that President Bola Tinubu, a southerner, who succeeded former President Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner, is barely 15 months into his 48-month first term.

Currently, political leaders, especially from the North are locked in a series of consultations on the issue. Underground alignment and re-alignments are also ongoing.

Already, leaders of opposition parties have declared their readiness to form a strong coalition to stop the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC.

Those seeking to stop Tinubu hinge their stand on the president’s alleged poor performance since he took over on May 29, 2023, which they said had inflicted avoidable crushing hardship on Nigerians.
Early in the week, a joint ticket of Imo State Governor, Senator Hope Uzodimma and APC National Chairman, Alhaji Umaru Ganduje, was reported.

In a quick counter, Ganduje disowned the move, which he said was being orchestrated by those plotting to put a wedge between him and President Tinubu.
Northern power brokers angling to stop Tinubu are said to be looking for a southerner, who will do a term and relinquish power to the North in line with the North-South power rotation principle. After Tinubu’s four years in 2027, the South will need another four to balance the North’s eight years occupied by Buhari.

This is one of the reasons some are rooting for former President Jonathan with one of the northern groups pairing Jonathan and Governor Umaru Fintiri of Adamawa State as a sellable 2027 Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, ticket.

Jonathan, Fintiri ticket best option for Nigerians —Northern group

Northern political group, Let Nigeria Breathe Again, mid-week endorsed a potential presidential ticket of Dr. Jonathan and Fintiri for the 2027 election.

The group’s leader, Mustapha Aliyu Lere, believes this pairing offers the best chance for unity, peace, and progress in Nigeria.

Lere praised Jonathan’s leadership and integrity, noting that he has committed no sins against anyone since leaving office in 2015.

He also commended Fintiri’s transformation of Adamawa State during his five-year tenure as governor.

He appealed to the PDP to unite and support Jonathan’s potential candidacy, citing the need for experienced leadership to address Nigeria’s challenges.

2018 law rules out Jonathan

However, Jonathan, who ran for second term in 2015 and lost to Buhari is not qualified to run courtesy of a 2018 Bill of the National Assembly signed into law by President Buhari.

The bill, which limits tenures of vice presidents, and deputy governors who succeed principals, was signed into law on June 8, 2018.

Specifically, the Constitution amendment Act Number 16, provides that a vice President or a deputy governor who succeeds and completes the tenure of a president or governor can only run for the office one more time.

By the provisions of the law, no one can take the oath of office as president or governor more than twice.

Before this amendment, vice presidents or deputy governors, after completion of their predecessors’ term could run for office for another two terms.

This was the case with former President Jonathan, who succeeded President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2010, contested and won the presidential election in 2011 and still contested same office in 2015.
The new law prohibits this, hence Jonathan is not eligible to run as president in 2027.

Unfolding realignment for 2027

The Presidential Candidate of the Labour Party, LP, in the 2023 poll, Mr Peter Obi, recently met with his New Nigerian Peoples Party, NNPP, counterpart, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in what was considered as part of political realignment ahead of the 2027 polls.

Obi also met with Atiku in Abuja, as well as also former Jigawa State Governor, Sule Lamido and former Senate President, Bukola Saraki.

Already inter-parties defection of lawmakers is ongoing.

Atiku Abubakar, first mooted the idea of a merger by opposition political paries while hostinf the Inter Party Advisory Council, IPAC, last November. He said the country was sliding into a one-party state, and added that it is crucial for the opposition parties to come together to wrest power from the APC.

He told the IPAC team: “You have come here today to say that we should cooperate in order to promote democracy. But, the truth of the matter is that our democracy is fast becoming a one-party system; and of course, you know that when we have a one party system, we should just forget about democracy.

“We have all seen how the APC is increasingly turning Nigeria into a dictatorship of one party. If we don’t come together to challenge what the ruling party is trying to create, our democracy will suffer for it, and the consequences of it will affect the generations yet unborn. “

Recently, the National Chairman of the African Democratic Congress, ADC, Chief Ralph Okey Nwosu, said leaders of opposition party politics are in talks to build a more formidable party to oust the ruling party.

“Twenty-two of the thoughtful and proactive leaders of political parties in blazing the trail have joined hands with our party, ADC, and like us, are committed to building a larger party that will give accommodation to all well-meaning patriots.

“We have resolved to work with all political leaders across that appreciate the need for coming together for a new Nigeria. We discriminate against none; our commitment is a new Nigeria that will lead our dear continent out of its present abyss. We have therefore set up committees to consult far and wide to ensure the dawn of a new era,” Nwosu stated.

Why North doesn’t want Tinubu re-elected

Although he played critical roles in the emergence of President Buhari in 2015, northerners opposed to Tinubu said he has betrayed the North that helped him into power. They also accused him of mal-treating northern politicians on whose support Tinubu rode to power.

Several northern political figures and groups have expressed dissatisfaction with Tinubu’s administration, citing a range of issues from perceived neglect of northern interests to concerns about governance and security. They also pick holes in his appointments, which they described as sectional.

According to them, since independence, no ethnic group had held, at once, major slots like the President, Petroleum Minister, Finance Minister, Chief Justice of Nigeria, Central Bank of Nigeria Governor, Inspector General of Police, Chief of Army Staff, Interior Minister, Power Minister, Solid Minerals Minister, Transport and Marine/Blue Economy Minister, Attorney General of the Federation and Justice Minister, Controllers of Customs, and Immigration, and Chairman of Federal Internal Revenue Service, FIRS, among others. Today, they said under Tinubu, the Yoruba, one of Nigeria’s three major ethnic groups, is holding the above positions.

One of those leading the move against Tinubu’s re-election is a prominent northern socio-cultural and political group, the Northern Elders’ Forum.

A member of the group, Prof. Usman Yusuf, reportedly said the North regretted supporting Tinubu during the 2023 general poll. He described the past one year of Tinubu’s administration as “deception, destitution, and hopelessness.”

He lamented: “People have lost hope. It pains me to see our people lining up to collect cups of palliatives. Renewed Hope has turned into hopelessness. People have lost hope.”

The NEF Spokesman, Abdulaziz Sulaiman, also reportedly said the North made a mistake by supporting Tinubu in 2023, adding that they would not repeat the mistake in 2027 but would strive to select a candidate who would unite the country and govern in the best interests of all Nigerians.

In like manner, the North-East Governors’ Forum accused the Tinubu-led Federal Government of neglecting the region in the provision of capital projects.

The forum’s Chairman and Borno State Governor, Babagana Zulum, complained of blackout in the zone and alleged that road and rail connections between the South-East and North-East had been abandoned.

Considered the electoral power bank of Nigeria, it is difficult to beat a United North in political contests in the country. The leaders are aware of this hence the ongoing realignments.

The perceived northern gang-up against Tinubu came to the fore after the meeting of immediate past Governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir el-Rufai and the candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party in last year’s presidential election, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso; and the visit of the former governor of Sokoto state and a serving senator, Aminu Tambuwal, led by a former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, to former President Buhari in his Daura country home in Katsina State.

Although, Atiku said he visited Buhari to pay him Sallah homage, analysts insist that the visits were connected with posturing for 2027.

Although, el-Rufai, who could not make it through the Senate as TInubu’s ministerial nominee, has not openly declared war against Tinubu’s government, his son, Bashir, in a message to Tinubu, said: “Nobody is too big to be voted out of office by the people. It will happen and wallahi, nothing will happen. So, forget all this intimidation flying up and down. Let us be patient.”

Niger-Delta agitators urge Southerner solidarity

Meanwhile, the Niger Delta Ex-Agitators Forum, has kicked against the northern gang-up against Tinubu and called for solidarity among southern political leaders to demand for justice, equity and end the marginalisation of southern politicians in governance affairs.

Addressing a press conference in Port Harcourt, the Chairman of the group, Ambassador Alban Paulinus, also known as General Skillar, said that Niger Deltans must come together to deal with the issues threatening political stability and unity of Nigeria.

Going down memory lane, the ex-agitators noted that the tenure of former President Jonathan was also characterized by injustice, which led to his being denied a second term.

”A similar pattern is emerging with President Tinubu, as some Northern groups are already calling for his removal barely a year into his administration,” the group said.

It observed: “This starkly contrasts with the attitude of northern leaders during the administration of former President Buhari, who served two full terms despite significant security challenges.

The forum decried this disparity as a destabilizing force and called for an immediate end to this trend of undermining Southern leadership, warning that continued provocations might leave them with no choice but to take decisive actions to protect their region and identity.

The Niger Delta Ex-Agitators expressed support for President Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope Agenda,” which they described as a robust blueprint for national development.