Nigeria’s economy stabilises. But Nigerians are still hungry

Biola Abayomi pleaded with the butcher for the umpteenth time, her demeanour pitiful. 46-year-old Mrs Abayomi, a fashion stylist and mother of two children, appears desperate to purchase a cut of beef at N2,000, but the butcher disagrees, their voice drowned out by the chatter of traders and passersby at the Sango-Ota market in Ogun State. It’s the second week of August, and Mrs Abayomi told PREMIUM TIMES she hadn’t bought beef since the first quarter of the year, due to its sky-high prices. The middle-aged woman would later wobble away from the butcher’s stall, amid lamentation.

“We have been eating smoked fish (Panla) and cow skin (ponmo) for months, and it means I’d have to return to cow skin sellers’ stalls, anyway,” she said, her teary voice barely concealing her frustration.

The impact of the economic policies executed by the Bola Tinubu administration, particularly the removal of petrol subsidies and the devaluation of the naira, has made it difficult for millions of Nigerians like Mrs Abayomi to buy things they could afford before Mr Tinubu assumed office in 2023.It was a Saturday in August, and Mrs Abayomi struggled to wriggle her way out of the nutritional dilemma she faced due to the state of the economy. Paradoxically, some days earlier, in Abuja, about 740 kilometres from Ota, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala hailed the Nigerian government for stabilising the economy.

“You cannot really improve an economy unless it’s stable. So he has to be given the credit for the stability of the economy. So the reforms have been in the right direction. What is needed next is growth,” the Director-General of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and former finance minister said. Her assessment of the economy has since thrown up polarising debates, with multiple interpretations among Nigerians.

In his intervention, Yemi Kale, former statistician-general and CEO of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), cautioned that while Nigeria’s economy may now be described as “stable,” it does not automatically translate to relief for citizens.

In a post shared on X, he explained that economists define a stable economy as one where major fluctuations or disruptions have ceased, allowing businesses, investors, and consumers to plan with greater confidence.

“When economists say an economy is now stable, they usually mean that the economy has reached a point where it is no longer experiencing major fluctuations or disruptions,” he said.“In practical terms, it suggests macroeconomic indicators are steady, predictable and confidence returns, and there are no immediate crises.”

Good Numbers, Near-empty plates
Nigeria’s fiscal position has improved in recent months. But in homes and markets across the country, hardship still runs deep.

The National Bureau of Statistics recently announced that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product stood at N372.8 trillion in 2024, following a rebasing of the economy. At the exchange rate of N1,530 to the dollar, that translates to $243 billion.

That was 29.9 per cent higher than the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s estimate of $187.6 billion.

The new data reflects a shift in the base year used to calculate GDP, from 2010 to 2019. It expands the scope of measurement to include fast-growing sectors such as fintech, the digital economy, and informal businesses.

The rebasing also improved the country’s fiscal outlook, as the public debt-to-GDP ratio fell to 39.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, down from earlier estimates.

This keeps the country’s debt burden below the federal government’s 40 per cent ceiling and well under the threshold recommended by the IMF and World Bank.

Annual inflation dropped to 21.88 per cent in July 2025, down from 33.40 per cent recorded a year earlier. Food inflation, which has caused the greatest strain on households, also stood at 22.74 per cent year-on-year in July, compared to 39.53 per cent in the same month last year.

The naira has held steady recently, trading at N1,535 to the dollar in the official market, following devaluation exercises.

Similarly, banks have resumed international transactions on naira debit cards for the first time in three years, following improved dollar liquidity and confidence in the forex market.

Global credit rating agencies have equally responded to the changes. Moody’s, for instance, upgraded Nigeria’s issuer rating from ‘Caa1’ to ‘B3’ with a stable outlook, citing reforms in foreign exchange policy and improved external reserves.

Caa1 means Nigeria was seen as very risky, with a high chance it might struggle to repay its debts, while B3 means the risk is still high, but Nigeria is doing better and is now seen as slightly more likely to meet its debt obligations.

The IMF, in its latest Article IV Consultation, also praised the country’s recent steps to address longstanding structural problems, including fuel subsidy removal and unification of exchange rates. The article is a yearly review through which the IMF assesses a country’s economic and financial policies and advises to support stability, growth, and development.

“The government’s tax reforms will make it easier to pay taxes and ensure that everyone who owes taxes pays them,” the report said. “Over time, once the ongoing cost-of-living crisis abates and the cash transfer system is fully operational, there will be room to align tax rates.”

But despite the positive outlook in the fiscal position, for many Nigerians, these gains remain quite illusory.

“We don’t see this improvement they talk about,” said Maryam Musa, a market trader in Kaduna. “People still buy food in bits. Nobody buys in bulk anymore.”

Martha Philips, a civil servant in Abuja, now buys only small portions of what she needs because her salary can no longer cover bulk purchases.

“I like buying in bulk: rice, gari, oil, and even protein. I usually share cartons of chicken and fish at Kado Fish Market,” she said. “But prices have skyrocketed, and my salary didn’t skyrocket with them. I can’t spend all my money on one item, so I just spread it and buy things kilo by kilo at the neighbourhood market.”

Rice to be distributed in the 1st quarter of 2024
Bags of rice used to illustrate the story
For many households, the drop in inflation has not translated into relief. Prices are still rising, albeit at a slower pace, and purchasing power has eroded after years of high inflation and stagnant incomes.

Insecurity, climate shocks, and rising input costs have disrupted food production across rural Nigeria, undermining the government’s efforts to bring down prices. Though President Bola Tinubu declared a state of emergency on food insecurity in 2023, food inflation remained high through most of 2024.

Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Nigeria has kept its benchmark interest rate at 27.5 per cent, after a series of hikes aimed at reining in inflation. It says holding the rate steady will help anchor expectations and consolidate recent gains.

Macro-Micro Disconnect
Despite real GDP growth of 3.38 per cent in 2024 and a growing sense of optimism among investors, unemployment remains high. In many areas, families say their incomes are falling short of even basic needs.

“Everything costs more now, but our incomes haven’t changed,” said Chidi Okonkwo, a civil servant in Abuja. “This so-called growth doesn’t reach us.”

Mr Okonkwo said he can no longer afford basic food items in the quantities he used to buy. He explained that despite government claims of economic recovery, high prices and stagnant wages have left many families struggling to cope.

“It’s hard to see the progress they talk about when you’re cutting down on meals just to make it to the end of the month,” he added.

Paul Alaje, senior economist at SPM Professionals, pointed out a growing disconnect between Nigeria’s improving macroeconomic indicators and the harsh realities faced by households and businesses.

“We are seeing the numbers, the data, and saying, ‘Oh, we now have positive GDP,’” he said. “We’re also saying the trade balance is in surplus, there’s relative stability in the exchange rate, and inflation has reduced month-on-month for three consecutive months.”

However, he noted that these signals of macroeconomic recovery have not translated into better living conditions for ordinary Nigerians.

“When you now flip to the micro side, you see households groaning and complaining, and businesses are suffering. Only one component of micro, which is the government, is the agent that seems to have benefited,” he said.

He also cautioned against relying solely on GDP as a measure of national well-being: “If there are only three people in a country, and two earn N1 while one earns N10, the GDP becomes N12. But two people are still really poor. That is the limitation of GDP as a yardstick.”

To bridge the gap between macro gains and micro hardship, he called for investment in public infrastructure and services.

“The carriers of the economy from one level to another are public goods, like roads, education, energy, and health,” he said. “If the fundamentals are not there, we might be seeing positive numbers, but people may not feel a positive impact in their lives.”

In recent months, there have been concerns around public spending across all the tiers of government, and some analysts consider it bad optics for the reform agenda of the federal government.

“Less of the money is going into capital expenditure,” Mr Alaje said. “Until we start having our capital expenditure surpassing our recurrent expenditure, I’m afraid, inflation may be with us for a long time.”

Growth not relief
Aliyu Ilias, an economist with CSA Asset Advisory, explained why macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, declining inflation and relative stability in the foreign exchange market have not translated into better living conditions for Nigerians.

“There’s a disconnect because if you look at the macro economy, like you said, the GDP is showing up positively because of the rebase, the inflation seems to be coming down. Also, the forex seems to be stabilised. But the thing is, it cannot reflect because we have to see it for some time before we can start getting to recovery,” he said.

He cautioned against equating economic growth with poverty reduction.

“I must also disabuse our minds that we have economic growth that reflects in GDP does not mean poverty will reduce. What will actually reduce poverty is household consumption and household disposable income. As much as our disposable income is reducing, purchasing power is reducing; there is no sign, there is no hope that poverty will reduce,” Mr Ilias said.

He urged the federal government to address supply chain issues, particularly in energy.

“We must look at our supply chain. Our supply chain has to do with energy, because our energy transportation is the major problem and it is energy cost,” he said.

He also highlighted the need to tackle insecurity to improve food production. Referring to President Tinubu’s July 2023 declaration of a state of emergency on food security, Mr Ilias said: “Up till now, we have not seen the reflection. We must go back to all-season farming, because now that produce is coming out, things are reducing, and that’s what we must do.”

He criticised the assumption that border reopening would solve food access challenges.

“We must also not be mistaken for believing that once we open our border, everything will be okay,” he said. “During President Muhammadu Buhari, the gain we achieved, especially in rice production, is getting eroded, also because of the border opening. We are supposed to make our own getting better and sufficient…”

He also called for a downward review of the Central Bank’s benchmark interest rate: “The MPR is still between 27.5. We need to find a way to actually reduce the MPR to achieve a successful development in poverty reduction.”

Positive outlook
Tope Fasua, special adviser to the president on economic matters, said while hardship persists, Nigeria’s macroeconomic outlook has significantly improved.

He listed several indicators, such as slowing inflation, stable exchange rates, stronger foreign reserves, rising exports, and improved credit ratings. “Inflation is getting better, reducing… credit ratings have improved,” he said.

Tope Fasua writes that corruption should never define us in Nigeria.
Tope Fasua writes that corruption should never define us in Nigeria.
“Even reserves have got to $40.1 billion.”

He added that GDP growth, though modest, is positive, and states are receiving higher allocations. He said sectors like real estate, housing, and agriculture are beginning to expand.

Exports, according to Mr Fasua, are booming. Nigeria exported $2.6 billion worth of cocoa in 2024, a 200 per cent rise over 2023. He also said Nigeria now exports refined petroleum products to countries like the United States, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia.

Importation of crude has declined, he said, while local refining is improving. “The structure of the economy has changed greatly,” he said.

Mr Fasua acknowledged the cost-of-living crisis but said inflation is trending downward, from 34.8 per cent earlier this year to 22.2 per cent, and could drop to 15 per cent by year-end if current conditions persist. He attributed lower food prices to improved harvests and a cassava glut. “Garri has been reduced by 50 per cent,” he said. “That is good for the people.”

He said psychological factors and social media amplify public frustration. “There’s this disconnect, but it’s gradually bridging,” Mr Fasua said. “People are planting. People are moving around. People are getting married. People are building houses. We’re not starving to death.”

He urged the public to focus on recovery rather than fear. “People should stop living in fear. If everybody were so afraid, then we’d all starve to death, and we’re not starving to death.”

Mr Fasua also argued that poverty may be declining in areas like Ondo, Osun, and Cross River, citing cocoa earnings as one example. “Quite a number of those took a lot of people out of poverty,” he said.

He called for a shift in attitude: “Some people are sowing despair. They should be sowing hope.”

While acknowledging urban struggles and job insecurity, driven by global digital trends, he said the broader picture is improving. People must reposition themselves,” he said.

“This country is blessed… Nigeria is not doing badly as far as countries are concerned.”

Gaps
Muda Yusuf, chief executive of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, said the gap between macroeconomic gains and relief for ordinary Nigerians was not unusual.

He explained that the government’s first three years had been spent “fixing some key economic fundamentals” and stabilising the economy after inheriting “an economy that was already on the brink.”

But he noted that these efforts have come with “a huge cost” in the form of higher living expenses, inflation and shocks to businesses. “If these reforms are not taking place, the economy will be much worse off,” he said.

Mr Yusuf urged authorities at all levels to now focus on targeted actions to tackle everyday costs, improve infrastructure and boost productivity.

“Apart from dealing with the macroeconomic issues, which is very good because you can’t build something on nothing, I think the government needs to now move to tackling these specific issues of economic governance,” he said.