Off-cycle elections: PDP faces uphill battle ahead 2027 polls

The plan by the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, to bounce back as the dominant party in the country appears to be suffering more setbacks following the outcome of the five off-cycle governorship elections conducted under President Bola Tinubu.

since Tinubu assumed office as Nigeria’s president on May 29, 2023, five off-cycle elections have been conducted in Bayelsa, Kogi, Imo, Edo, and Ondo States.

The All Progressives Congress, APC, won four states, while the PDP, the hitherto largest political party in Africa, claimed just one.

The continuous defeat suffered by the PDP during the elections has raised concerns and cast doubt over the party’s possibility of returning to power in 2027.

The internal wranglings rocking the party have not helped matters either, as the leaders remain at each other’s necks over the control of the party’s National Chairmanship seat.

Some analysts are of the view that the PDP needs to tinker with its approach, else it would finally implode by 2027.

PDP must unite as APC employs state capture mechanism – Ononuju

The Director General of Heritage Centre, a Think Tank dedicated to research into economics, politics and opinions, Mr Katchi Ononuju, said the off-cycle elections have shown that APC is employing state capture mechanisms ahead of 2027.

Ononuju noted that the PDP which should have provided a strong opposition to the ruling party has gone comatose due to its internal leadership crisis.

Ononuju said: “Holistically, PDP is supposed to be the opposition but it’s moribund, PDP is gone, it’s comatose.

“Moreso, it undermines the role of the opposition and that’s due to the squabbles within the PDP right from the time of their disagreement which made Kwankwaso go away, Peter Obi left to start the Obidient movement and he became the new toast of the Nigerian electorate.

“So, the APC employed a strategy and protocol for state capture. What you saw in Edo is what you have seen in Ondo, which is the protocol of state capture where it captures INEC and the judiciary. Just go in there, do anything and nobody talks.

“The protocols of state capture have been mastered by the APC and that’s why you see a replication. These are not elections but captured events.

“This is the problem and because they do this with impunity, there is no reaction from a divided opposition.

“This is what Atiku and others did that damaged the PDP and forced people to leave and since then, the opposition has been in disarray.

“If you don’t have an opposition to fight in a democracy, what you will have is an executive that behaves the way Tinubu is behaving.

“If they don’t resolve their issues as opposition and come together as a team, the APC will continue to employ instruments of state capture, which in this case is the INEC. You notice that electoral fraud perpetrated previously by individuals is now being perpetrated by INEC itself and the judiciary that would give them justice.

“Our democracy is in a state of capture, so until we unite as an opposition, forget the PDP because the party is comatose.

“If the opposition wants to fight and provide the necessary strength for democracy, it needs to find a way to unite and in doing that, Atiku who became a Nigerian in 1961 should understand that Nigeria has given him a lot, thanks to the plebiscite that brought in the British part of Cameroon known as Adamawa, the Sardauna province into Nigeria.

“The truth is that a lot has been given to Atiku so he should concede and support the South for the 2027 presidential election, then you can see the opposition come back.”

He accused the APC-led government of muscling the INEC and the judiciary in a bid to capture states.

The PDP chieftain faulted the APC for nominating its party members into INEC and the judiciary contrary to the laws.

He said: “The electoral act as amended is beautiful and had instructions for a Biometric identification of voters before they could cast their votes which made the large number of votes from the North disappear in the last election, that was why Peter Obi won very well.

“But the state capture protagonists stopped the process and claimed that there was a glitch, they, later on, did what they did acrobatically and muscled the judiciary to follow suit, we need to look at that.

“The ability to muscle the judiciary and the INEC by the APC means there is no more democracy if those going for election are nominating party men into INEC and the judiciary.”

NASS should abolish off-cycle election – Activist, Idam

Meanwhile, an activist lawyer, Maduabuchi Idam has charged the National Assembly to make laws that would abolish off-cycle elections and ensure a uniform poll in Nigeria.

Idam described the off-cycle elections as a threat to Nigeria’s democracy, adding that corrupt politicians were benefiting from it.

“The issue of free and fair elections in Nigeria is a work in progress, however, we are not making any progress.

“The National Assembly, which has the power to fashion laws that would enable our electoral environment to ensure free and fair elections, appears to be benefiting from the lack of free and fair elections in Nigeria, thereby, making it impossible for them to pass laws that will guarantee free and fair elections.

“Off-cycle elections exert both economic and security pressure on our national life; the resources spent on off-cycle elections can be spared by 60 percent if elections remain uniform.”

The activist insisted that uniform elections could be achieved if members of the National Assembly were willing to purge themselves and make necessary laws.

He said: “To say if we can achieve a uniform election in Nigeria – yes. It can be achieved if members of the National Assembly are willing to purge themselves; members of NASS are people who are continually recirculating themselves.

“If you go to the National Assembly, you see people who have been there since 1999 – that’s to tell you that these are the same people who have refused to allow our electoral law to grow.

“Now this is the reason it would be difficult for this set of people to come up with laws that prevent them from returning to the National Assembly.

“If there are laws made to enable uniform elections in Nigeria, the issue of off-cycle elections would not be there.

“If laws are made that after election results are declared, whatever litigation would arise from it must end before swearing in, there will not be the need for an off-cycle election.

“There will not be a need for corruption in our electoral system because you will know that if you win or lose elections, the period within which that election is tested in court will be a short period and there will be no litigation after swearing in, if this is the case, the issue of an off-cycle election would have been taken care of.

“This practice does not favour the average corrupt politician in Nigeria because that window period to gather resources to intimidate and influence any other election to his favour will not be there.

“It’s better if the National Assembly can be patriotic to pass laws that would enable elections to be uniform.”

The off-cycle governorship elections conducted under President Bola Tinubu have seen the All Progressives Congress, APC, winning four states while the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, claimed just one state.

since Tinubu assumed office as Nigeria’s president on May 29, 2023, five off-cycle elections have been conducted in Bayelsa, Kogi, Imo, Edo, and Ondo States.

The continuous defeat suffered during off-cycle elections has raised concerns and cast doubt over the PDP’s possibility of returning to power in 2027.

Amid its losses in the off-cycle elections is the internal leadership crisis within the PDP as chieftains have been at each other’s necks over the control of the party’s National Chairmanship seat, a situation that seems to make the party unstable.

Off-cycle election: PDP must unite as APC employs state capture mechanism

The Director General of Heritage Centre, a Think Tank dedicated to research into economics, politics and opinions, Katchi Ononuju, said the off-cycle elections have shown that APC has employed state capture mechanisms ahead of 2027.

Ononuju noted that PDP which should have provided a strong opposition to the ruling party has gone comatose due to its internal leadership crisis.

Ononuju said: “Holistically, PDP is supposed to be the opposition but it’s moribund, PDP is gone, it’s comatose. Moreso, it undermines the opposition and that’s due to the arguments within the PDP right from the time of their disagreement which made Kwankwaso go away, Peter Obi left to start the Obidient movement and he became the new toast of the Nigerian electorate.

“So, the APC employed a strategy and protocol for state capture, what you saw in Edo is what you have seen in Ondo, which is the protocol of state capture where it captures INEC and the judiciary. Just go in there, do anything and nobody talks.

“The protocols of state capture have been mastered by the APC and that’s why you see a replication. These are not elections but captured events. You hold the judiciary and INEC as epitomized by somebody like Wike who can get a judgement against what Tinubu wants at the Supreme Court and at the lower court, people believe that they can just write to undermine democracy and not allow the flourishing of an opposition.

“This is the problem and what we must look at and because they do this with impunity, there is no reaction from a divided opposition. This is what Atiku and others did that damaged the PDP and forced people to leave and since then, the opposition has been in disarray. If you don’t have an opposition to fight in a democracy, what you will have is an executive that behaves the way Tinubu is behaving.

“During Buhari’s era, they were busy blaming Atiku for staying in Dubai, you can’t be there and lead an opposition; and by the time he came back, we had someone Peter Obi and that forced him not to travel anymore. He didn’t allow the power shift to the South in 2013 which he asked for, but Buhari got into power through the amalgamation of several groups to form the APC. If after eight years of Buhari, Atiku receded, that’s the reason why the opposition is in disarray; we need to understand that.

“If they don’t resolve their issues as opposition and come together as a team, the APC will continue to employ instruments of state capture which in this case is the INEC. You notice that electoral fraud perpetrated previously by individuals is now being perpetrated by INEC itself and the judiciary that would give them justice. Our democracy is in a state of capture, so until we unite as an opposition, forget the PDP because the party is comatose. So, if the opposition wants to fight and provide the necessary strength for democracy, it needs to find a way to unite and in doing that, Atiku who became a Nigerian in 1961 should understand that Nigeria has given him a lot thanks to the plebiscite that brought in the British part of Cameroon known as Adamawa, the Sardauna province into Nigeria.

“The truth is that a lot has been given to Atiku so he should concede and support the South for the 2027 presidential election, then you can see the opposition come back and democracy will be muscled because democracy works well when the opposition is not restrained and helps to provide necessary criticism of the government’s action without that democracy dies and that’s why we currently have problems in our country.”

Tinubu should strengthen INEC integrity

The former Special Adviser on Public Affairs to Peter Obi has charged Tinubu to strengthen the electoral integrity in the country to create room for a free and fair election.

He said: “If you ask me, Tinubu’s economic policies are strong and I see a bright light after them but he should work to strengthen electoral integrity because the electoral body has been captured by Tinubu’s party men who have nominated themselves into INEC and the judiciary which is a problem to the country and our democracy. We need to work hard because if we don’t look at these things, it will not be proper for the country.”

Electoral act: APC muscling INEC, Judiciary

He accused the APC-led government of muscling the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, and the judiciary in a bid to capture states.

The PDP chieftain faulted the APC for nominating its party members into INEC and the judiciary contrary to the stipulations of the electoral act.

He said: “The electoral act as amended is beautiful and had instructions for a Biometric identification of voters before they could cast their votes which made the large number of votes from the North disappear in the last election, that was why Peter Obi won very well. But the state capture protagonist stopped the election and claimed that there was a ditch, they, later on, did what they did acrobatically and muscled the judiciary to follow suit, we need to look at that; the ability to muscle the judiciary and INEC by the APC means there is no more democracy if those going for election are nominating party men into INEC and the judiciary.”

Adhering to provisions of Electoral Act in Nigeria

He also expressed hope that Nigeria would witness a time when INEC would conduct elections in compliance with the provisions of the Electoral Act and the rule of law.

“We will get there but I don’t think that with Tinubu’s desperation, it will be at the next election but we will get there. The important thing was to trick Buhari into signing that Electoral Act amendment, they didn’t know what was inside it. The availability of that legal demand for a biometrical authentication forced them to evaporate, so when you now start implementing according to the law, it is just a matter of time. Tinubu’s return is not enough because there are entrenched cabals, so while we must work on the social space to come together, build consensus by pushing agreement and understanding; Nigeria is a good place.

“In the last election, the ruling party lost and the opposition lost, now we have a brand new person driven by the youths, Buhari had the same Fulani people in control of INEC, Army, Police, DSS, and the court; what Buhari and co did will not last forever, no, it will go away with time, nepotism will go. Nigeria must agree to embrace competition because it’s an integral part of democracy and you must allow electoral competition to be very fair including the market which is the economy. I have no doubt that Nigeria has embarked on a journey to a better country, it’s just some ethnic champions making noise.

“When Buhari and co forced Tinubu and co to start the ethnic cries which the Yorubas are not known for and when you allow competition to reign that’s the only way to go through a democracy. All successive societies have been built on respect for the rule of law. That is why I said there may not be respect for the rule of law but I believe as we go on we will continue to implement those protocols that respect the rule of law. I like the pressure from the current generation of young people that want a better country,” he added.

Tinubu’s desperation responsible for APC state captures

Ononuju pointed out that President Tinubu’s desperation to secure his reelection in 2027 was responsible for the deployment of state captures as seen in the off-cycle elections.

Stressing that the spate of elections lately shows that INEC is compromised, Ononuju said Nigeria needs the electoral umpire reformed before the next election.

He said: “Tinubu is desperate to secure himself a second term in 2027 so he now seeks to capture the states properly and be able to have an easy flow. So, when you see them making state capture protocols, it’s because they have perfected it and know that the system is weak. That’s why you see them appointing judges – Wike’s wife is a judge and his cousin is INEC’s big person – and that’s why the election in Edo went that way. Wike can now do forum shopping and get free judgements that go against the court’s previous positions. The state is in dire capture and they use this to undermine our society. INEC right now is compromised, so do you still want to go into 2027 with the same old INEC that has not been reorganized?”

NASS should abolish off-cycle election

Activist lawyer, Maduabuchi Idam has charged the National Assembly to make laws that would abolish off-cycle elections and ensure a uniform poll in Nigeria.

Idam described the off-cycle elections as a threat to Nigeria’s democracy because corrupt politicians are benefitting from it.

“The issue of free and fair elections in Nigeria is a work in progress, however, we are not making any progress towards a free and fair election. The National Assembly which has the power to fashion laws that would enable our electoral environment to ensure free and fair elections has appeared to be benefiting from the lack of free and fair elections in Nigeria, thereby, making it impossible for them to pass laws that will guarantee free and fair elections since they are benefitting from electoral malpractices, fraud, and corruption.

Off-cycle elections appear to be a threat to our democracy, even though we ignore the fact that off-cycle elections have not helped our nascent democracy, it’s not the case with other civilized societies because it does not serve any good to any nation. Off-cycle elections exert both economic and security pressure on our national life, the resource spent on off-cycle elections can be spared by 60 percent if elections remain uniform.

“How do you engage the nation’s security and material resources to conduct a general election that must take place in all states at the same time and thereafter during the tendency of the tenure of the officers who participated in the general election? This style is grossly anti-democratic and encourages corruption and corrupt political actors who are favoured by the general election and have seized public resources to intimidate voters and manipulate electoral results to favour their interests; this is why off-cycle elections must be discouraged because it’s not sane, civilized and does not encourage democracy.”

Achieving uniform elections in Nigeria

The activist lawyer insisted that uniform elections can be achieved if members of the National Assembly are willing to purge themselves and make laws prohibiting off-cycle elections.

He said: “To say if we can achieve uniform election in Nigeria – yes. It can be achieved if members of the National Assembly are willing to purge themselves, members of NASS are people who are continually recirculating themselves; if you go to the National Assembly, you see people who have been there since 1999 – that’s to tell you that these are the same people who have refused to allow our electoral law to grow.

“Now this is the reason why it would be difficult for this set of people to come up with laws that prevent them from returning to the National Assembly. If there are laws made to enable uniform elections in Nigeria, the issue of off-cycle elections would not be there. If laws are made that after election results are declared whatever litigation would arise from it must end before swearing in; there will not be the need for an off-cycle election and there will not be a need for corruption in our electoral system because you will know that if you win or lose elections, the period within which that election is tested in court will be a short period and there will be no litigation after swearing in, if this is the case; the issue of an off-cycle election would have been taken care of.

“This practice does not favour the average corrupt politician in Nigeria because that window period to gather resources to intimidate and influence any other election to his favour. We are saying that it’s better if the National Assembly can be patriotic to pass laws that would enable elections to be uniform.”