Ondo guber: Why PDP lost, recorded worst outing since 1999

The main opposition Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, polled a miserly 117,845 votes in the weekend’s governorship election in Ondo State. It is the party’s worst performance in the state since 1999.

In the six previous governorship elections in Ondo, the PDP scored 195,682 votes (1999); 655,968 (2003), 349,258 (2007); 155,961 (2012); 150,380 (2016); and 195,791 (2020).

However, the 117,845 votes scored by Hon Ajayi Agboola, its candidate, were better than the 69,127 votes that Agboola got in 2020 while running on the platform of the Labour Party, LP.

The 2024 Ondo governorship election is also the worst in terms of voter’ turnout, highlighting the rising wave of voters’ apathy in Nigerian elections.

Voters’ turnout in Ondo guber polls

In 1999, of the 1,33,617 registered voters, 536,584 (40.24 per cent) came out to cast their ballots. Four years later, the figure rose significantly with 889,868 (59.16 per cent) of the 1,504,181 registered coming out to vote.

In 2007, only 575,309 (42.40 per cent) of the 1,356,779 eligible voters took part.

The figure plummeted to 38.12 per cent in 2012 when only 624,658 of the listed voters cast their ballots.
There was a slight improvement in 2016 when voters’ turnout was 42.95 per cent as 707,776 of the 1,647,973 registered voters took part.

In 2020, only 591,193 (32.62 per cent) of the 1,812,634 registered voters participated.

In Saturday’s election, the figure went further down. For the first, less than 500,000 voters took part. Only 497,077 or 28.29 per cent of the 1,757,205 voters, who collected their Permanent Voters Cards, PVCs, came out to vote.

On Saturday, Vanguard reported that money was the main attraction for voters to take part in the election following perceived rigging of many polls across the country. Indeed, vote-trading was a major complaint in the election.

Factors that led to PDP’s defeat
Aiyedatiwa won overwhelmingly across the three senatorial districts to show how grounded he is in the politics of the state.

Unfortunately, Ajayi even failed to win his local government of Ese-Odo after polling 7,814 votes against Aiyedatiwa’s 14,511 votes

Tinubu/APC governors’ factor
Reliable source told Vanguard that President Bola Tinubu had, before the election, met with notable leaders of the party in the state and instructed them that the “Ondo election is a must win” and promised to give financial support, if necessary.

Governor Aiyedatiwa and the leaders of the party were reminded that the Ondo election would be the first to be conducted in the South-West after the president assumed office, hence, he should not be disgraced politically in his zone.

APC governors’ invasion
The presence of nine APC governors and national leaders of the APC led by the National Chairman, Dr Umar Ganduje, led credence to the fact that they did not want to take anything for granted.

Also, the statement made by Vice President Kashim Shettima, who represented the President during the party’s campaign grand finale in Akure, that the party was going to win in all the 18 council areas, showed that they meant to “capture” all the states in the region.

Aiyedatiwa, a new governor, had met with some of the governors and pleaded with them not to allow him to “walk the journey alone” and he was obliged.

Sources revealed that Aiyedatiwa begged his colleague governors not to allow him to be disgraced by his kinsman, Agboola Ajayi.

the national leadership of the party was carried along, hence the choice of Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State as chairman of the National Campaign Council, while his Ekiti State counterpart, Mr Abiodun Oyebanji was included in the council.

Divided house, internal wrangling, multiple defections
Unlike Aiyedatiwa, who was able to win back other aggrieved governorship aspirants shortly after the party’s primary in April this year, Ajayi, the PDP candidate could not rally other aggrieved party members. This led to many of them leaving Ajayi in the cold.

Two PDP governorship aspirants left the party. While Chief Olusola Ebiseni left for the Labour Party, LP Bamidele Akingboye went to the Social Democratic Party, SDP, and picked the tickets of their newfound parties.

Notable leaders of the party, stood aloof immediately after the party primary and all through the campaigns.

Their aides also left the party in their hundreds and pitched their tents with Aiyedatiwa.
As it is Ajayi, went to the election with a divided house and the results of the election across the three senatorial districts were abysmally woeful.

Mimiko’s neutrality
Former governor Olusegun Mimiko, who would have been Ajayi’s greatest ally was said to have been neutral during the campaigns even though his loyalists had crossed over to Aiyedatiwa’s camp.
Had Mimiko thrown his weight behind Ajayi, it would have been a tough contest for Aiyedatiwa.

Inability to match APC’s war chest

Another factor that caused Ajayi’s defeat was the huge war chest of the APC.

In spite of the support of two PDP governors (Seyi Makinde of Oyo State and Senator Ademola Adeleke of Osun State), Ajayi was unable to fly.

While the APC was reportedly doling out between N20,000 and N25,000 to each voter, the opposition reportedly offered less.

PDP’s State Collation Agent, Olaniyi Ogungbuji, claimed that the APC deployed over N35 billion to induce voters in the poll.

“I can tell you that APC, as a party, deployed over N35 billion into inducing the electorate. People were buying votes for N20,000 or N15,000, and in my polling unit, it was N10,000 to N15,000,” he said

Incumbency factor

As a serving governor, Aiyedatiwa had the incumbency factor on his side. The workers, traditional rulers, who got five per cent council allocations, pensioners, farmers and a host of other stakeholders endorsed his candidature before the election. A few months to the election, Aiyedatiwa appointed 344 personal assistants and directed them to go back to their constituencies to propagate his achievements.

One term of 4 years for Aiyedatiwa

It was also learned that the massive support that Aiyedatiwa got from the Ondo North and Central Senatorial districts was a result of the fact that he could only spend one term after completing the term of his late boss, Rotimi Akeredolu.
Politicians from the two zones preferred Aiyedatiwa, who constitutionally cannot be sworn in more than twice than Ajayi, who will want to spend eight years.

Ajayi enjoyed some backing from the people of Ondo South, who argue that it will only be proper to allow him in order to ensure two terms of eight years for the zone rather than Aiyedatiwa, who according to the Constitution, is expected to spend a term.

Despite the support that Ajayi enjoys in the South, he still couldn’t fly in the poll.
Aiyedatiwa defeated him in all the six council areas of Ondo South.

LP, SDP reject results
Meanwhile, the Ondo State candidate of the SDP, Bamidele Akingboye and the Deputy Governorship Candidate of the LP, Hon Dayo Awude, rejected the INEC’s declaration of Aiyedatiwa as winner of the governorship election.

Speaking in Akure, the Akingboye called for the nullification of the poll. He alleged that the poll was marred by irregularities, hence INEC should conduct a fresh exercise.

Describing the vote-trading that hallmarked the election as “open bazaar auction. PDP will do theirs, APC will do theirs,” he alleged that “the results had been written even before the election, and we’re rejecting it because it is not the truthful result.”

Akingboye asked the INEC to declare him as the winner of the election.

“I’m asking that INEC should declare me as the winner of this election because people were supposed to come out to vote for me, they chased all our party agents out of their polling units. I’m considering myself as the winner of this election and INEC should declare me the winner of this election,” he said.

The state Chairman of the party, Mr. Gbenga Akinbuli, corroborated the SDP candidate, describing the exercise as a sham and a slap on democracy.

“We have come out to voice our minds about the sham that took place on Saturday, the disgrace, the slap on democracy that took place called election.

“We, as a political party, are condemning the Ondo State gubernatorial election that took place on the 16th of November 2024 and we are calling for the immediate cancellation of the election.

“I have never seen an open show of shame like I did yesterday (Saturday). In my polling unit, Ward 10, Unit 19, Ondo West Local Government, APC was offering N10,000 for a vote, PDP was offering N7,000. They were doing a bazaar, the highest bidder and I saw it with my own two eyes. They intimidated our polling unit agents on duty.

“I had to go in and stand in as the agent in my own polling unit because they chased out everybody, even PDP agents. We are saying that the election was marked by gross malpractices, vote-buying, voter-intimidation, and even writing of votes,” he said.

Financial muscle earned Aiyedatiwa victory —Awude
In a statement after the declaration of the result, Awude said: “I do hope and pray that vote-trading will become a thing of the past in our electoral system. There is no gain saying the fact that the show of naira force that was at play in this election decided where the pendulum of victory swung. I would have been happier if this victory was won without the vote bazaar that characterised it

“So long as vote buying remains the decider of election results in our clime accountable and good governance may continue to elude us. Leaders should hold their victory to the benevolence and judgment of the people and not to how deep their pockets are.”

Why our names were substituted
Speaking on the substitution of his name and that of the party’s governorship candidate,Chief Olusola Ebiseni, by INEC, Awude said that “the intra- party crisis in the party led to the action hours before the election, which he said hurt all their efforts.

“My principal and I tried our best, using the Labour Party platform, but as it turned out, the intra-party crisis that erupted in the party consumed that effort, leading to my name and that of our governorship candidate, Chief Sola Ebiseni, being substituted by INEC, a few hours to the election, due to an unexpected court order.

“ It was an order that defied all known basic rudiments of law. That was a heart-wrenching experience. The details of the politics of that orchestrated crisis and the intrigues of the judicial processes is a story that will be told later.

“With the removal of our names as candidates came the expected volte face by our supporters. Their pain and agony were palpable.

“Despite the removal of our names, some of our supporters still voted for the Labour Party. To this set of people, I say thank you.

“Without prejudice to any course of action that may be taken by any interested party on the outcome of the process, I urge Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa, the man who has been declared the winner by INEC, to use this opportunity as a tool of service to God and the people of Ondo State in good conscience.”
Aiyedatiwa’s victory, a good omen – Kayode, ex-defence minister

Former Defence Minister, Tokunbo Kayode, SAN, has described the victory of governor-elect as a good omen for the people of the state.

His words: “ This is a good omen for the people of Ondo State as there would be tremendous development in all sectors in the state. Our people expect this.

“I also want to commend INEC as well as the security agencies for efficient implementation of the constitutional guidelines in the conduct of the election.”

While congratulating the people of the state for voting for Governor Aiyedatiwa, he said the outcome of the election was true reflection of the people’s will and it validated the acceptability of Aiyedatiwa.
Victory’s well deserved – Ojogo, Adefarati

Two members of the House of Representatives, Hon Donald Ojogo representing Ileja/ Ese- Odo Federal Constituency and Hon Adegboyega Adefarati, representing Akoko South East/ Akoko South-West constituency, described the victory of the Governor- Elect as well deserved.

Ojogo said the election results validated the people’s love and appreciation of Aiyedatiwa’s dedication and hard work. “This massive turnout is a reciprocal gesture by the Arogbos for the kindness and support they received from the people of Ilaje in the previous election, which led to Hon. Ojogo’s historic win as the first Arogbo to occupy a seat in the House of Representatives in Abuja.”

Also, Adefarati in a congratulatory message, commended the people of Ondo State for reposing their trust in Aiyedatiwa’s leadership to steer the state towards greater prosperity for another four years.

He noted that the victory is not just a testament to the Governor’s outstanding leadership but also an affirmation of his unwavering commitment to the development and well-being of the people.
Results reflects people’s will – Foreign observer group

Meanwhile, a foreign observer group, International Police Chaplain Sustainable Development and Law Enforcement Inc. USA, said that the results of the election truly reflected the records of the ballot boxes at the polling units.

Its spokesperson and Director of Administration and Organisations at the African Regional Command, Mr. Oscar David, said this while presenting its assessment of the poll

David urged candidates and political actors to resort to legal channels in case of contestation and disagreement to sustain social peace and avoid breakdown of law and order.

He said that the election was very peaceful, transparent, credible and successful, with minimal incidents and complaints by party agents at polling units and collation centres.