Tinubu’s 2027 Dilemma: Drop Shettima and Break the North?
As the political climate begins to heat up ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections, talk of a possible shake-up in the presidency has surfaced, particularly around the future of Vice President Kashim Shettima. But despite the swirling rumours and the ambitions of political actors eyeing the number two seat, insiders close to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu have firmly dismissed any notion of replacing his deputy.
In recent weeks, names such as former Zamfara State Governor Abdullaziz Yari, National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu, Niger State Governor Mohammed Bago, Kaduna State Governor Uba Sani, Gombe State Governor Inuwa Yahaya, and former Speaker Yakubu Dogara have been floated as possible substitutes for Shettima. Political analysts and party sources suggest varying motivations behind these proposals. Ribadu is believed to be considered as part of a long-term plan to rotate the presidency back to the North in 2031. Yari is often noted for his perceived loyalty to Tinubu and strong public defense of the administration, while Dogara is reportedly being pushed as a Christian alternative to balance the religious equation and address concerns over the continued Muslim-Muslim ticket. The three sitting governors, on the other hand, are said to be considered based on their performance and rising influence in the party.
However, the presidency has firmly rejected the narrative of any impending replacement. Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, dismissed rumors of a rift between Tinubu and Shettima, insisting there has been no fallout since they assumed office more than two years ago. He further noted that the announcement of a running mate typically follows a party primary and that there is no urgency or precedent for the current speculations.
A top official within the presidency, speaking anonymously, stressed that President Tinubu has every reason to keep Shettima by his side going into 2027. According to the source, Shettima brings immense political value to the ticket, particularly in the North where opposition to Tinubu’s re-election appears to be gradually intensifying. Shettima’s unbroken winning streak in Borno State, from his tenure as governor to his election as senator, is cited as evidence of his grassroots strength and unwavering regional appeal.
More importantly, the source recalled that Shettima was among the first northern politicians to support Tinubu’s presidential ambition. At a time when certain APC factions sought to block Tinubu’s path to the primaries, Shettima stood firmly behind him, even taking on the role of campaign director general and fiercely defending Tinubu’s candidacy in the media and public forums. His loyalty during those critical periods, including controversial yet pointed remarks about opposition figures, is said to have endeared him further to the president.
Shettima is also seen as both competent and dependable. Insiders note that he has handled every assignment given by the president with diligence and discretion, enhancing Tinubu’s confidence in him. His track record in managing sensitive national issues, including intervening during a crisis when northern youths issued threats against southeastern Nigerians, has only added to his political credibility. He reportedly moved quickly to de-escalate tensions and worked closely with southeastern leaders to resolve the situation peacefully.
Beyond politics and governance, the strong personal bond between the First Lady, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, and the Vice President’s wife, Hajia Nana Shettima, is believed to be another unspoken factor contributing to Shettima’s continued relevance. The two women have developed a close working relationship through the First Lady’s Renewed Hope Initiative (RHI), which focuses on empowering women and girls across the country. Hajia Shettima plays a key role in the initiative and often represents the First Lady at national events, helping to project a united and inclusive image of the Tinubu administration.
Villa sources say that this synergy between the two families contributes positively to the public perception of the government and could make any attempt to abruptly alter that dynamic politically costly. In a landscape where loyalty, political structure, competence, and optics all matter, Shettima appears to tick all the right boxes. For Tinubu, replacing such a trusted ally could create more internal friction than it would solve.
While political aspirations and jockeying for influence are expected ahead of a major election, all credible signs point to a steady Tinubu-Shettima ticket for 2027. The vice president is not just a placeholder—he is viewed within the administration as a stabilizing force, a strategic partner, and a political asset too valuable to discard.
