Why Russia’s presence in West Africa should concern Nigeria, by Edgar Githua
Nigeria stands tall as a colossus on the African continent. It is not only the most populous country on the continent but it also commands a lot of respect and wields undeniable influence. Its leaders command regional and global attention. It possesses one of the fastest growing economies on the continent with immense potential for investment opportunities. Militarily, it is respected regionally and has proven itself invaluable in the West Africa regional security architecture. In sum, Nigeria is special, a power to recon within West Africa, a vanguard of the region, and to many countries in West Africa, a capable big brother. Nigeria is, however, worried about Russia’s intentions and motives within the region and on the continent. Several issues inform its apprehension.
Nigeria and Russia enjoy cordial diplomatic relations that unfortunately have not realised the dividends that Nigeria expected from this long-standing relationship. Russia has always viewed Africa as a continent that enables it to keep an eye on Europe from the South, as it does the same in the East from Eastern Europe. This relationship, however, has been characterised by a string of broken promises that have spanned several years and need re-examination.
Russia has always seen Nigeria as an ally that would allow it to get a foothold in the African continent. It began cultivating its relationship with Nigeria during the 1960s but did not make inroads because Nigeria was careful not to strain its relations with the West. Russia was only able to gain a foothold in Nigeria when it helped Nigeria during the civil war (from 1967 to 1970). Russian weapons helped Nigeria defeat the separatists who threatened the unity of the nation. Despite the continuous supply of weapons to Nigeria over the years, the western ideological orientation ingrained in Nigerian leadership successfully kept Russian influence at bay.
Nigeria is, however, sceptical about the varied promises that Russia has made over the years. Despite numerous bilateral agreements signed between the two countries, a lot of broken promises characterise the relations between these two nations. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo attempted to rekindle Nigerian-Russo relations when he visited Moscow in 2001. Numerous agreements were signed that touched on interstate cooperation. Numerous promises on various bilateral projects were made and never fulfilled. Other promises made during the visit of President Dmitry Medvedev to Nigeria in June 2009 also never materialised. Talks surrounding the establishment of a petrochemical plant, nuclear energy collaboration, and oil exploration remained shrouded in mystery.
Another major project that Nigeria and Russia agreed to collaborate on was nuclear energy. In an agreement signed in 2017, Russia agreed to build and manage a nuclear power plant in Nigeria to produce electricity. This agreement was never actualised as Moscow kept quiet and delayed in effecting the project. New negotiations on the same nuclear power plant project were undertaken by the Nigerian foreign minister Yusuf Tuggar in 2024 but have yet to be finalised; showing that Russia is an unreliable development partner not only for Nigeria but for other African countries.
Nigeria is also worried about the erosion of democratic ideals within the West Africa region, specifically the Sahel. Russia’s influence in the Sahel has encouraged the entrenchment of undemocratic ideals as exemplified by the events in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic. The rise of Islamic fundamentalism and jihadist groups created a security challenge that Russia exploited. Using its Wagner Group ( now AfrikaCorps), Russia supports military juntas that overthrew democratically elected governments. These regimes have embraced Russia in a symbiotic relationship that sees Russia provide security in exchange for illegally acquired minerals.
These resources have been exploited by Russia to among other issues fund its war in Ukraine at the expense of the local populations. These local populations continue to suffer and languish in extreme poverty as leaders illegally propped up by Russia also further enrich themselves.
Nigeria is staring in dismay as the Economic Community of West African States loses influence in the West African region due to the rise of the newly formed Alliance of Sahel States. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have charted a new course and broken away from ECOWAS. Russia’s influence over these three states has driven a wedge in the regional bloc that has overseen and managed West African affairs. Nigeria, together with the region is greatly concerned that gains achieved through ECOWAS will be eroded, setting the region back substantially. In essence, Russia has proven that its presence is detrimental to regional integration in Africa. This continues to generate great concern, and attempts at reconciling AES to ECOWAS have not been successful. Russia is happy to pull the AES cover in order to increase its anti-western influence in the region.
Nigeria has a lot of influence within the ECOWAS community and commands respect as the biggest economy in the region. It needs to play a leading role in pointing out the ills and negative impact that Russia has had within the West Africa region. This way, countries in the region will raise their respective guard in the way and manner they engage with Russia or any of its affiliates. Through a concerted call to action, ECOWAS can make moves to consolidate the gains it has made in the region and also minimise Russia’s influence within its members.
Dr Githua is an international relations and security analyst from Strathmore University
