10th Assembly, APC And The Dilemma Of Zoning

This is not the time to envy the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) as the party is going through its first litmus test after an overwhelming victory at the February 25 presidential and National Assembly elections. This reminds me of events in the buildup to the 2022 party primaries when the major political parties were inundated with the idea of zoning their presidential ticket. Apparently, the party that managed the zoning agitation better got the result at the polls.

The agitations are here again as the inauguration of the 10th National Assembly draws nearer and different geopolitical zones and interest groups are advancing various arguments to favors their preferred candidate for positions of presiding officers. As the contest gets closer, this page will get busy with the intrigues, intricacies, and political undercurrents that would determine the next leader of Nigeria’s legislature, particularly at the Green Chambers.

However, for today’s discourse, the Green Chamber cannot be discussed in isolation, since we are talking about the ruling party and the option of zoning.

I will first of all like to sound a note of warning to the APC not no underestimate the power and drive of peoples individual ambition. The truth is that APC won the February 25 presidential election because one man, Tinubu prepared and laboured for the victory. This is arguable, but by and large, many politicians whose back Tinubu had scratched in the past were there for him before and during the election.

In the same vein, the party must  realise that just as the president-elect, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu argued his case and worked his way to get the APC ticket and eventually won the presidential election, there are individuals at the National Assembly who are powerful enough to toe the same line. If the APC had zone its presidential ticket to another zone in the buildup to the party primaries Tinubu wouldn’t be the candidate and the result may be different.

There were suggestions that the ruling party and indeed the major opposition, PDP, should zone the presidential ticket to the South East or the North East to achieve some arguable political balancing.

However, this argument did not survive in the two political parties and here we are, some stakeholders who ‘bullied’ their way into power without recourse to zoning are now the proponents of zoning positions in the 10th Assembly, what an irony.

Just like the president-elect, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu nursed a lifetime ambition of becoming the president of Nigeria and refused to be deterred by the argument of justice and fairness, some lawmakers have also for several years nursed individual ambitions and over time developed a war chest to pursue such ambition. How on earth will the party convince such people to drop their ambition in the interest of ‘fairness and justice’?  The APC in this case has made the contest a jungle situation where only the fittest survive.

I am yet to see the magic APC would perform to convince the North West to jettison the quest for the position of the President of the Senate. A zone that delivered the highest number of votes to the party and its presidential candidate deserves compensation from the party.  I also imagine a situation whereby the party decides to back a candidate from the South East or South-South zone for the position (President of the Senate) or Speaker of the House of Representatives and a more popular candidate from another zone with more lawmakers on his side decides to contest against the party’s choice, candidates from the anointed zone, probably with fewer lawmakers on their side  may not survive in that contest. The logic is simple, it will be very difficult for lawmakers to queue behind candidate(s) from the party’s zone if such an individual is not popular among his colleagues, this is a bankable fact.

Meanwhile, irrespective of the argument in favor of the zones that produce majority lawmakers, the party has a duty to ensure national spread and possibly make an inroad to the zones where it is less popular. This is the dilemma and it will take a team of political genius to solve it with minimal consequences.

While I fervently hope that APC would find a way around the logjam, my fear may, eventually, be confirmed.