Crude earnings fall by N3.18tn amid output surge

Nigeria’s crude oil exports declined by N3.18tn in the first half of 2025 despite an increase in production volumes, the latest foreign trade statistics report from the National Bureau of Statistics has shown.

while the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reported a 12.7 per cent rise in crude oil output during the period, export earnings from crude fell by more than 11 per cent year-on-year.

Between January and June 2025, crude oil exports totalled N24.92tn, down from N28.10tn in the same period of 2024. This represents an 11.3 per cent decline in value, or a loss of N3.18tn.

Further analysis of the foreign trade data from the NBS by The PUNCH showed that in the first quarter of 2025, crude exports stood at N12.96tn, compared to N15.49tn in Q1 2024. The difference of N2.53tn amounts to a 16.3 per cent fall. By the second quarter, the decline was less steep: exports dropped from N12.61tn in Q2 2024 to N11.97tn in Q2 2025, a reduction of N642bn or 5.1 per cent.

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The contribution of crude oil to total exports also weakened. In Q1 2024, crude accounted for 80.8 per cent of Nigeria’s exports, but by Q1 2025 this had dropped to 62.9 per cent, a decline of nearly 18 percentage points. The downward trend continued in Q2, with crude making up 52.6 per cent of exports, compared to 71.2 per cent in Q2 2024 — a decline of about 18.6 percentage points.

By contrast, non-crude oil exports surged. In H1 2025, they more than doubled to N18.43tn, compared with N8.79tn in H1 2024 — a growth of 109.6 per cent or an additional N9.64tn. Non-oil exports alone rose from N3.74tn to N6.21tn, an increase of N2.47tn or 66 per cent.

Overall trade also expanded. Total exports in H1 2025 reached N43.35tn, up from N36.89tn in H1 2024, reflecting a 17.5 per cent increase. Imports, on the other hand, rose by a slimmer margin of 6.9 per cent, from N28.72tn in H1 2024 to N30.71tn in H1 2025.

This contributed to an improved trade balance, which grew by 54.6 per cent, from N8.17tn in H1 2024 to N12.64tn in H1 2025. The PUNCH further observed that crude oil’s dominance in Nigeria’s export profile is being eroded, with its share sliding from 76.2 per cent in H1 2024 to 57.5 per cent in H1 2025.

The development highlights a paradox in Africa’s largest oil producer where rising output has not translated into stronger export performance, raising questions about domestic absorption, global oil demand, and pricing conditions. The data suggest that while Nigeria is pumping more crude, weaker global prices, rising domestic utilisation, or both, may be weighing on export receipts.

Earlier in March 2025, The PUNCH reported that Nigeria’s 2025 budget could come under pressure as crude oil prices slipped below the government’s benchmark projection of $75 per barrel. The situation, compounded by a dip in average daily crude production, was also expected to impact local refineries, including the Dangote plant and others.

While global factors such as falling oil prices may have contributed to the decline in export earnings, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has been supplying crude to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery under a naira-for-crude arrangement — a move analysts say could be diverting some volumes away from international markets.

Earlier in June 2025, The PUNCH reported that the Federal Government sold crude oil valued at N219.38bn to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in the first four months of 2025.

The government also earned $1.59m from crude oil exports in April 2025, during the period it suspended sales of domestic crude allocations to the Dangote refinery and local refiners. These details were contained in internal documents from the NNPCL, submitted at the Federation Account Allocation Committee meetings.

266.9m barrels crude

Nigeria pumped a total of 266.9 million barrels of crude oil between January and June 2025, according to figures obtained from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission by The PUNCH. The data show that the country recorded higher output across all six months compared to the same period in 2024, when production stood at 236.7 million barrels.

In January 2025, crude production rose to 47.7 million barrels, higher than the 44.2 million barrels recorded in January 2024. February output also increased to 41 million barrels, up from 38.3 million barrels in the same month of the previous year.

The upward trend extended into March, where production climbed to 43.4 million barrels, a gain of more than 5 million barrels compared to 38.2 million barrels in March 2024. April saw output reach 44.6 million barrels, rising by nearly 6 million barrels from the 38.7 million barrels recorded in April the previous year.

May’s figures showed a further improvement, with Nigeria producing 45 million barrels compared to 39.1 million barrels in May 2024. The highest year-on-year increase came in June, when production hit 45.2 million barrels, up from 38.1 million barrels a year earlier, a difference of about 7.1 million barrels.

Overall, the first half of 2025 saw crude production rise by 30.2 million barrels compared with the same period in 2024, representing a growth rate of 12.7 per cent. When condensates are included, total liquid output for the period reached 303.2 million barrels, compared to 275 million barrels recorded in the first half of 2024.

Industry watchers say the steady increase in crude production reflects improved operating conditions in the oil sector, though they caution that challenges such as pipeline vandalism, theft, and underinvestment continue to pose risks.

However, the NUPRC earlier revealed a 50.2 per cent reduction in crude oil losses during the first seven months of 2025. In a recent statement by the Head of Media and Strategic Communications at NUPRC, Eniola Akinkuotu, it was noted that between January and July 2025, the country lost 2.04 million barrels of crude oil, averaging 9,600 barrels per day, which is the lowest level since 2009 when losses were recorded at 8,500 barrels per day.

This marks an improvement compared to the 4.1 million barrels lost in 2024, which had an average daily loss of 11,300 barrels. The latest figures also highlight a significant reduction from the record losses of 37.6 million barrels in 2021, when the country lost an average of 102,900 barrels per day.

The current figures represent a 94.57 per cent drop from the losses experienced in 2021. The statement read, “Between January and July 2025, crude oil losses were contained at 2.04 million barrels, averaging 9,600 barrels per day over the seven-month period. This marks a clear departure from the high-loss years that have long plagued the industry.

“By comparison, the entire 2024 calendar year recorded 4.1 million barrels lost at a daily average of 11,300 barrels. Remarkably, in just the first seven months of 2025, losses were cut by 50.2 per cent, with only 2.04 million barrels lost over the period.

“The figures for the period ending July 2025 also represent a dramatic 94.57 per cent drop in crude oil losses compared to the full year of 2021, when Nigeria lost a staggering 37.6 million barrels at a daily average of 102,900 barrels.”

According to the statement, the progress was made possible by a combination of effective regulatory measures and collaboration with security agencies, oil operators, and local communities.

The NUPRC’s metering audit, aimed at ensuring accurate measurements of production and exports, has played a pivotal role in reducing discrepancies. NUPRC’s success is also attributed to the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act in 2021, which has significantly contributed to the downward trend in oil losses.

Also, the commission has adopted both kinetic and non-kinetic strategies to tackle the issue, continuing to work closely with stakeholders in the oil sector to ensure the country’s resources are better protected.

Earlier in June 2025, the Executive Coordinator of the Independent Petroleum Producers Group, Oyeleke Banmeke, said that crude oil theft in Nigeria has reduced significantly compared to figures recorded about two to three years ago.

Banmeke commended the current administration of President Bola Tinubu for improvements in security along the country’s oil-producing corridors, particularly in the Niger Delta.

Speaking earlier on the likely impact of crude oil prices on government revenue, an Energy Professor at the Lagos State University, Dayo Ayoade, said the drop in crude production prices would affect the budget adversely, though it would bring down fuel prices.

Ayoade also said that the government must do its best to achieve two million barrels per day, or the refineries will have to resort to imports, which may impact the fuel prices.

Similarly, Professor Adeola Adenikinju of the Department of Economics at the University of Ibadan argued that the decline in crude oil prices is like a two-edged sword. He said it would lower the prices of refined products, such as PMS.

“But macroeconomically, it’s going to have implications, especially for government revenue, simply because the two critical assumptions, you know, that would change the budget were the oil price and oil volume. So, if oil prices go down and persist, then that will mean that budget implementation will be very difficult,” he said.